Monday, July 27, 2009

Patience, Politics and the Stimulus

President Obama is more and more emphasizing the politics of patience as he tries to maintain the trust and support of the American people. It is still quite uncertain if this will work - polls show mounting anxiety about Obama's policies including his $787 billion stimulus package. This stimulus package has not had as big impact so far as was his original plan. The outlandish spending has pushed the federal deficit to the remarkable level of more than $1 trillion this year.

What is startling to many voters is that unemployment keeps climbing upward. It has hit 9.5 percent, the highest mark in over 25 years and I still predict the rate to hit 11 percent in the next 3 or 4 months. Obama and his advisers had predicted that his stimulus package would hold unemployment at or below 8 percent. Was he too ambitious? Did he rush this package out without enough research and understanding just to show he was capable of moving quickly?

Last week, Obama's leaning to more patience became quite apparent. While pushing for immediate congressional action on healthcare, he admitted there isn't a cure all. He is now willing to accept that this Healthcare Bill will not be voted on before the Congress breaks for the summer recess.

While speaking to reporters in Washington, he spoke some of the unemployment rate: "This has been a more severe recession than we've seen since the Great Depression, so how unemployment numbers are going to respond is not yet clear. My expectation is that we will probably continue to see unemployment tick up for several months. And the challenge for this administration is to make sure that even as we are stabilizing the financial system, we understand that the most important thing in the economy is: Are people able to find good jobs that pay good wages?"

While speaking in Michigan, which is has been hit by the nation's highest jobless rate of 15.2 percent, Obama said he inherited such a mess that it will take a long time before the overall economy shows much improvement. He claimed he is an activist and his Republican critics as do-nothing complainers. "I love these folks who helped get us into this mess and then suddenly say, 'Well, this is Obama's economy,' " the president argued. "That's fine—give it to me. My job is to solve problems, not to stand on the sidelines and carp and gripe." This mess we are in goes back quite far and is not all the fault of the Republicans. Many of the policies followed plans made by the Clinton administration while he was in office.

What the Democrats are worried about is that the unemployment rate in several key states—including Michigan, Ohio, Florida, and Indiana—has already soared to well over 10 percent, and they know the big fear is that this is an indication of things to come nationally. Republicans and some economist go further, arguing that these states show that Obama's prescriptions are not only failing but are starting to make matters worse.

Some Americans do understand that it took us years to get into this mess, and it will take a while to get us out. But there is a growing number of Americans that are much more restless and anxious than Obama once thought. A recent CBS News poll shows that sixty percent of Americans say Obama's stimulus package has made no difference in the economy, 21 percent say it has had a positive impact, and 15 percent say it has made the economy worse. Fifty-seven percent say the country is on the wrong track, up from 50 percent in June.

The President is also asking for more time to solve several other problems. He is now urging for more patience in Afghanistan, where his surge of troops and more aggressive combat operations against terrorists are increasing casualties and the cost. This is now becoming more his war, just as Iraq was George Bush’s. He is asking for patience in Iran, wanting now to carefully evaluate the new reform movement before doing anything more dramatic. He wants patience in dealing with immigration, which he has now put on the back burner in Congress because of deep divisions over the issue. He is begging for patience in dealing with the tensions and hatreds between Israel and the Palestinians. He wants more understanding of why Gitmo will not be closing down quite as soon as he had promised it would. Is he now just starting to realize to complexities of running this country? Does he understand now that he needs to evaluate things more carefully before rushing into something blind? I have mentioned many times before he needs to slow down and smell the roses, sit back and evaluate before just doing something. He wanted to show us he could accomplish things quickly, but in the process he has created more of a mess.

A boss once told me it is better to do something and ask for forgiveness later. That may work for small things, but sometimes it is better to examine the angles and make sure what you do gets’ done right. There is less of a mess and things tend to go more smoothly.

Ed Gillespie, a prominent GOP strategist and former White House counselor to President George W. Bush said about Obama: "he has got to stop overpromising and underperforming." The fear in the White House is that many more Americans are starting to notice the difference. Many of Obama’s supporters said he would do wonders - well he has - he has spent more in 6 months than all of the other’s combined. What does this do to our future when the American Taxpayer has to repay all this in a few years. When the middle class again see their taxes increase, the backbone of America beaten down again. Again just my opinion – My Explosion of Thought!

Thursday, July 23, 2009

Health Care and The Hard-Line Questions

On Tuesday, just after the 1,018-page Health Care document was released, it didn't take long to run into an "What the #*@*" moment when examining the House's "health care for all Americans" bill. You only have to read to page 16 where there is a provision making individual private medical insurance illegal. That is correct – ILLEGAL!

The House Ways and Means Committee confirmed the language on this. The provision would absolutely outlaw individual private coverage. If you look under the Orwellian header of "Protecting The Choice To Keep Current Coverage," the "Limitation On New Enrollment" section of the bill clearly states:
"Except as provided in this paragraph, the individual health insurance issuer offering such coverage does not enroll any individual in such coverage if the first effective date of coverage is on or after the first day" of the year the legislation becomes law.

In essence we can keep our current coverage, just as promised — with some major exceptions: If you currently have private individual coverage, you won't be able to change it. Those who want to leave a company to work for themselves be free to buy individual plans from private carriers.

The opponents of the public option plan have been warning that if the government gets into the business of offering some form of health insurance coverage, the private insurance market will suffer greatly. With a public option that will be 30% to 40% less costly than their current premiums because taxpayers will be funding it, many employers will gladly scrap private plans and go with the Government’s coverage option.

It has been estimated by a few nonpartisan groups, that up to 120 million or more Americans could lose their group coverage at work and end up in a Government program. Private carrierswill be left with about 50 million or fewer customers. This could cause great stress in the insurance market and cause most companies for wither away.

What wasn't known until the proposed document was released is that this Health Care Bill will in itself kill the market for private individual coverage. Without any new policies being allowed to be written after the public option becomes law it will crash the insurance markets.

This legislation will also likely end health savings accounts, a primary goal that Democrats have had for years. They have wanted to crush that option because nothing gives individuals more control over their medical care, and the government less, than HSAs.

This will not be an option for many of us but an actual Government mandate. A free society of people should be outraged at this advance of socio-communism, for this is what it represents. Our Government does not have the constitutional or moral authority to outlaw private markets in which people voluntarily participate. It should not be killing business opportunities, limiting choices, or legislating major changes in Americans' lives. We need to step up and speak out – Health Care may need some reform – but not like this. Why don’t we see the press speaking out more – this brings me to my other beef.

President Obama is an eloquent and wonderful speaker – that is when his speeches are well scripted and rehearsed. At his last press conference – why didn’t the press speak out more. Why did they not ask the hard and unscripted questions. Why do they allow this President to walk all over them and they only be allowed to ask what is scripted in advance. They sit nice and quietly in the press conference and when it is time for questioning, a few select press associates are allowed to ask a question. They are notified in advance on who the President will call on and what questions they will be allowed to ask. Why not ask about what is going on in Iraq? Why do we need so many more troops sent to Afghanistan? Why does it appear that Afghanistan is now becoming President Obama’s war as Iraq was President Bush’s war. He is not bringing home our troops, only transferring them to another location. Why is this Health Care Bill(over 1000 pages long) being rammed down our throats? Why does it have to be approved so quickly? What is hidden in it? More of the above – that was only page 16 – imagine what is in the other 900 and some odd pages. The American Press is so enamored by this President they have become a bunch of woosies, they have lost their backbone. Ask the hard-line questions and make him give us answers. After all this is just my opinion – My Explosion of Thought!

Thursday, July 9, 2009

What Happened to the Stimulus?

Where the government stimulus money? Where’s the beef? Why hasn't any of the $787 billion stimulus money stemmed the heart-stopping slide in U.S. employment? This plan was all about jobs, creating jobs now and in the long term. The Obama Administration officials pledged to save or create between 3 million and 4 million jobs with the measure. The government's employment figures on July 2 came in much worse that expected. The job losses leaped to 467,000 in June. This is the worst it has been since 1983. With unemployment now at 9.5%. My prediction has been that it may reach 11% before things start to stabilize. Confidence in this stimulus plan has been slipping.

It is now reported that Vice-President Joe Biden will suggest another stimulus plan is possible, with the announcement coming this weekend. This is a big shift from President Obama's position just two weeks ago, saying that more spending isn't yet called for.

Some experts say that the stimulus spending is going about as quickly as expected. The task of dispensing billions of dollars simply takes time. The government contracting rules slow things down a bit and much of federal spending is funneled through the states which can slow things to a crawl. Also, a chunk of the spending was intentionally spread out over several years. There are also other projects that are long-term in nature. Maybe the government should have looked at ways to speed up the process of funneling this stimulus money before they dispensed it. There are many physical, legal and processes of how fast you can spend and funnel the money. Then much of it also gets tied up with state policies and politics.

Right now it looks like legislation has been somewhat slow to unfold. Reports show that about $65 billion of the $420 billion that was in the stimulus package for contract and infrastructure spending has already been spent. About 18,500 specific projects are covered under the legislation, approximately 1,800 of them have had contracts awarded. There are about 5,000 or so out to bid. The funds for many others have been allocated but not spent. It appears that this plan was rushed to attempt to show that the government was doing something. It might have been better to delay the process a few months and do some better upfront planning. Find ways to relax the rules to allow the money to flow more quickly and be funneled in a way to realize more progress.

There is also a better way to stimulate the economy than bailing out so many businesses and banks. The big banks have been taken care of, but many smaller institutions have been allowed to fail. This is also now showing an effect on the economy. It appears that the high profile things were targeted to show that there was progress being made. Much like a big show. A lot of fluff and not enough substance.

To stimulate the economy you need to stimulate the right elements that can give a boost to spending that will create growth. A stimulus that includes a meaningful tax break for the middle to lower income earners would allow more Americans to keep what they earn and allow them to have additional funds to spend and pump back into the economy. This extra spending would allow businesses to start to grow, which in turn would allow for more jobs and less layoffs. An initial stimulus of $800 - $1500 to each taxpayer making under $125,000/year followed by a tax break would give the economy a shot in the arm. The paltry tax break included in the stimulus plan was a slap in the face to the American taxpayer. With the flaws in the way it was set up, many Americans will have to pay back some of the extra they are seeing in heir checks because they are actually getting too much back – this pertains to married couples where both partners are working. Based on what the government has paid out for bailouts, a stimulus with a payment to the taxpayer and a tax break would actually be a cheaper plan. Again my opinion – My Explosion of Thought!

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Smile - Michael Jackson

This was Michael Jackson’s favorite song – Smile - It was the theme music for Charlie Chaplin‘s final silent picture “Modern Times” in 1936. Nat King Cole made it popular in 1954 when they put the words to it and he sang it. This was performed today by Jermaine Jackson at his brother’s memorial. Even though the song is titled Smile – not a dry eye was in attendance. This song is kind of how Michael Jackson lived each day:

Smile though your heart is aching
Smile even though it’s breaking
When there are clouds in the sky, you’ll get by
If you smile through your fear and sorrow
Smile and maybe tomorrow
You’ll see the sun come shining through for you

Light up your face with gladness
Hide every trace of sadness
Although a tear may be ever so near
That’s the time you must keep on trying
Smile, what's the use of crying?
You'll find that life is still worthwhile
If you just smile

That's the time you must keep on trying
Smile, what's the use of crying?
You'll find that life is still worthwhile
If you just smile

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-8919992810549169606
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iu-rLA4POkI
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yg3XSy158dM
http://www.jango.com/music/Michael+Jackson?l=0

Monday, July 6, 2009

Sarah Palin

In a surprising, perplexing move from a national politician, Republican Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's decision to resign at the end of this month is one of the most stunning. No one is quite sure what she has on her mind, but most believe she is positioning herself for a run at the 2012 Presidential nomination.

Some have criticized her for making this move now and have said she is bailing out when to going is getting tough. Not sure if this is so but there may be other reasons also.

Logistically being located in Alaska is a hindrance for Palin's national ambitions. Alaska can take the better part of a day to travel to or from. They are 4 hours back from East Coast time and she can not just pop form Alaska to another State quickly to make an appearance. Governors also are not doing so great on the political landscape. With budget short falls and the economy to deal with, they have been taking a hard rap lately.

Sarah Palin had indicated on a social networking site that she would take on a larger, national role, citing a "higher calling" to unite the country along conservative lines. She has laid the groundwork for a possible presidential run over the past few months as evidenced by her establishing a political action committee. In order for Sarah Palin to build a political machine that will be needed to run for President, she needs to put a face and voice on the national scene. She needs to put in time in Washington and pick up some bright prospects for her political action committee. She will need to rebuild her image to gain more support from the moderates as she has done with many conservatives. She needs to brush up on world politics and her history and would benefit more from a voice on Radio, where more people would need to listen to her in contrast to looking at her.

Vanity Fair magazine published a highly critical piece on Palin last week, with John McCain campaign aides (who were afraid to be named) questioning if Palin was ever really prepared for the presidency. John McCain has come out since then in praise of her and has said he was honored to have her as his running mate.

Like it or not, I believe Sarah Palin will be around for sometime to come. She is a little rough around the edges, a little corny sometimes, but she is well liked and received among the conservative base. Despite those, namely a night time comedian who has since apologized, who have tried to tear down her family, she has persevered. She is a strong woman and the Republican Party needs to bring more like her into the party to strengthen their base. I see her moving up the chain in the party as the time nears for the 2012 election. Again just my opinion – My explosion of thought!