It was reported that the number of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week. I kind of get tired of hearing economist keep saying unexpectedly. Sometimes I think that they really need to look at the real world instead of hiding behind a bunch of statistics and numbers. This recent news is a sure sign that jobs remain scarce even as the economy attempts to recover. The Labor Department issued their report on Thursday morning that first-time claims increased by 18,000 in the week ended April 3, to a seasonally adjusted 460,000. Economists' were estimating of a drop to 435,000. This still represents a vast improvement from where we were a little over a year ago. Jobless claims peaked during the recession at 651,000 in late March 2009.
These reports demonstrate that the job market remains weak even as the economy is trying to grow. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a statement Wednesday that high unemployment is “one of the toughest challenges the economy faces.” While layoffs have slowed, hiring is "very weak," he said "We are far from being out of the woods," Bernanke said in a speech in Dallas. "Many Americans are still grappling with unemployment or foreclosure or both."
The report by the Labor department doesn't include millions of people who have used up the regular 26 weeks of benefits typically provided by states, and are receiving extended benefits for up to 73 additional weeks, paid for by the federal government. About 5.8 million people are still receiving extended benefits for the week that ended March 20. This is a drop of about 230,000 from the previous week.
Many recipients of the extended federal aid could see their benefits disrupted this week, because Congress decided that their two-week vacation was more important and failed to approve a continuation of the federal programs before leaving. The result of this action is that it will cut off benefits for more than 200,000 people this week. Congressional Democratic leaders have said they will make up for the lost checks when they extend the program later this month, this does not really help those who are struggling now.
In some good news, several retailers reported better than expected increases in same store sales of about 9%, these retailers include Target and Victoria Secret. Retailers benefited somewhat from improved consumer confidence but also from easy year-ago comparisons when sales were declining. The warmer weather and the early Easter season also helped to boost sales.
I still have to say that these economist need to realize that in the real world, until middle class Americans can see light at the end of the tunnel and until they start getting jobs seeing pay increases and some sort of stimulus, the recession will continue. This has to happen in order for these people to go out and start spending more which will increase a demand for more products which will in turn spark companies to start hiring at an increased pace. We will not realize a true recovery until this happens.
And about Congress wanting to go on vacation before approving aid for the unemployed; that is just uncalled for. So they say they will make it up when they get back. These people are struggling and as an American, they need to exercise their right to vote in the next election and vote these people out. Sure, they are getting paid by American Taxpayers, what do they have to worry about. Need to get some more sensible people voted into office. Again – just my explosion of thought!
Showing posts with label unemployment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label unemployment. Show all posts
Thursday, April 8, 2010
Friday, April 2, 2010
State of the Economy
I have yet to publish my outlook for 2010. I have been trying to look for signs that we will see some light at the end of the tunnel. I have been trying to look for signs that our Government and the President get it. I have yet to see those signs. Don’t these people ever study their history; don’t they learn from the past mistakes we have made?
Today the US Labor Department announced that the unemployment rate in March remained unchanged at 9.7 percent. My prediction is that we will be very lucky if this figure dips below 9.5% any time this year. Only 162,000 new jobs were created on non-farm payrolls, this is well below than what was expected. I am not sure how anyone expected much more; all you have to do is look around to see what the economy is like.
To top this off is that 48,000 of those were temporary workers hired for the Census, another 40,000 temporary workers were hired health service workers. In the government’s future figures they plan on counting about another 550,000 additional temporary Census workers. In several months, these workers will be out of work again. Over 6.5 million Americans have been unemployed for six months or longer, that is a record!
The President and his staff do not think that unemployment will fall to 5% or below until about 2017. That is almost 7 years away. They believe this because they do not have the answers and do not want to follow what has proven to work in the past. That is because they want change for changes sake and currently are only doing things that history has shown does not work well. We live in a capitalistic society, in this society there will always be ups and downs. The proven way to get out of a recession is to spend your way out. Until this government figures that out, the economy will not move.
The spending has to come from the American people, not the government. Stimulate the middle class people to spend again and the economy will start to grow. It is a ripple effect. If you would have found a way to get all that money into the hands American taxpayers instead of bailing out all these companies where only the top executives have really benefited, the economy would have already been growing. If people had more money to spend - they would be more confident. Then they would go out and buy things, the more they buy the more products will need to be produced. The more products that are produced, the more workers will be needed to produce them. It really is a simple cycle, it is a proven cycle. But the current government wants to do things different, they want to bring down capitalism and become more socialist by controlling more and more of the corporate world. I have yet to see my benefit of the government owning part of GM. Since we the American people pay for the bailout with our tax money – where is my free car – we all deserve that for what was given to them. Ford did not take any money and they fixed things on their own – the capitalist way.
The high unemployment rate is becoming an Achilles heel for the Democratic Party, who is currently in control of the White House and Congress. The party is facing pressure to create new jobs. Why should government create the jobs, they need to stimulate business to create more jobs. How do you do this? Hmm – we if you stimulate the American taxpayer to go out and spend – guess what happens – Bingo!
There was a little movement that showed a slight increase on economic expansion of about 5.6%. But – much of this resulted from inventory adjustments by many businesses. Businesses greatly decreased inventories for most of last year, but slowed the decrease quite a bit in the fourth quarter of last year. Businesses are estimated to have shed their inventories by about $138 billion in the third quarter and about $160 billion in the second quarter. In the fourth quarter this amount was slowed, as inventories decreased only about $19 billion. This change in the fourth quarter added 3.75% to the fourth-quarter GDP rise. Now some of those inventories need to be replenished, so we may see a little uptick of maybe 3% or so a month for the next few months.
My final prediction this year is again based on the price of razor blades. You know the price is getting up there when you see all the stores start to lock up their supply of razor blades. Inflation will start to tick up slightly, the Fed will need to inch up the interest rate at least a quarter of a point in the next quarter and maybe another quarter point before the end of the year to keep things in check. It should all be a system of checks and balances, which is the only control our government should have. As far as owning businesses, they are out of their league. I believe we will not start seeing any sustainable growth until about the second quarter next year, the only thing that might speed this up is if American taxpayers, especially the middle class are somehow stimulated to spend again. This again is my explosion of thought!
Today the US Labor Department announced that the unemployment rate in March remained unchanged at 9.7 percent. My prediction is that we will be very lucky if this figure dips below 9.5% any time this year. Only 162,000 new jobs were created on non-farm payrolls, this is well below than what was expected. I am not sure how anyone expected much more; all you have to do is look around to see what the economy is like.
To top this off is that 48,000 of those were temporary workers hired for the Census, another 40,000 temporary workers were hired health service workers. In the government’s future figures they plan on counting about another 550,000 additional temporary Census workers. In several months, these workers will be out of work again. Over 6.5 million Americans have been unemployed for six months or longer, that is a record!
The President and his staff do not think that unemployment will fall to 5% or below until about 2017. That is almost 7 years away. They believe this because they do not have the answers and do not want to follow what has proven to work in the past. That is because they want change for changes sake and currently are only doing things that history has shown does not work well. We live in a capitalistic society, in this society there will always be ups and downs. The proven way to get out of a recession is to spend your way out. Until this government figures that out, the economy will not move.
The spending has to come from the American people, not the government. Stimulate the middle class people to spend again and the economy will start to grow. It is a ripple effect. If you would have found a way to get all that money into the hands American taxpayers instead of bailing out all these companies where only the top executives have really benefited, the economy would have already been growing. If people had more money to spend - they would be more confident. Then they would go out and buy things, the more they buy the more products will need to be produced. The more products that are produced, the more workers will be needed to produce them. It really is a simple cycle, it is a proven cycle. But the current government wants to do things different, they want to bring down capitalism and become more socialist by controlling more and more of the corporate world. I have yet to see my benefit of the government owning part of GM. Since we the American people pay for the bailout with our tax money – where is my free car – we all deserve that for what was given to them. Ford did not take any money and they fixed things on their own – the capitalist way.
The high unemployment rate is becoming an Achilles heel for the Democratic Party, who is currently in control of the White House and Congress. The party is facing pressure to create new jobs. Why should government create the jobs, they need to stimulate business to create more jobs. How do you do this? Hmm – we if you stimulate the American taxpayer to go out and spend – guess what happens – Bingo!
There was a little movement that showed a slight increase on economic expansion of about 5.6%. But – much of this resulted from inventory adjustments by many businesses. Businesses greatly decreased inventories for most of last year, but slowed the decrease quite a bit in the fourth quarter of last year. Businesses are estimated to have shed their inventories by about $138 billion in the third quarter and about $160 billion in the second quarter. In the fourth quarter this amount was slowed, as inventories decreased only about $19 billion. This change in the fourth quarter added 3.75% to the fourth-quarter GDP rise. Now some of those inventories need to be replenished, so we may see a little uptick of maybe 3% or so a month for the next few months.
My final prediction this year is again based on the price of razor blades. You know the price is getting up there when you see all the stores start to lock up their supply of razor blades. Inflation will start to tick up slightly, the Fed will need to inch up the interest rate at least a quarter of a point in the next quarter and maybe another quarter point before the end of the year to keep things in check. It should all be a system of checks and balances, which is the only control our government should have. As far as owning businesses, they are out of their league. I believe we will not start seeing any sustainable growth until about the second quarter next year, the only thing that might speed this up is if American taxpayers, especially the middle class are somehow stimulated to spend again. This again is my explosion of thought!
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